Unpredictable Snow Patterns: A Brewing Storm for Western Wildfires

We’re now deep in the chill of winter, and our eyes are set on the mountains that are either sitting bare or boasting blankets of snow – nature's reservoirs for the Western states. The 2023-2024 Winter has been marked by a disconcerting deficit interspersed with freak storms, bringing snow totals up to either seasonal averages or above seasonal averages.

This time, two weeks ago, the NRCS SNOTEL map of the western United States was a polka-dotted collection of yellows, oranges, and reds. The same map tells a little bit of a different story, especially in areas of the eastern Great Basin. The Wasatch Mountains now boast multiple shades of blue or green. The whiplash raises concern for the looming fire season. Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and northern Washington remain in the orange, yellow, and red.

A meager snow year tells the tales of a parched earth, where once the snowpacks of the high Sierras and the Rockies stood as guarantors of the summer's water supply. Often, they fall short, sending rivers and aquifers into an existential crisis, deepening the drought that holds the West in a vice grip.

But don't be deceived by the occasional deluge that momentarily paints our peaks white. These erratic snowstorms, while dramatic, are but a fleeting spectacle. Their rapid dump is too much, too soon – a burden the drought-hardened ground can hardly absorb, leading to runoff rather than replenishment, and setting the stage for a perilous fire season. But don’t tell that to your local powder enthusiast.

What does this mean for our wildfire outlook? It's hard to say now– both a dry spell and a snowfall can fuel the flames. The arid conditions, a remnant of snowless months, prime our forests for combustion. And the growth spurred by sudden storms, once dry, offers fuel to the merest spark. Listening to a presentation yesterday from National Weather Service Incident Meteorologist Mike Seaman, he says to be prepared for the El Niño pattern to stick around for the next three months and looks to continue favoring the southwest with cool, moist air while leaving the north and northwest with warmer, drier conditions.

As the Wildfire Industry Collective peers into the future, the message is clear: adaptation is imperative. Traditional metrics for predicting and preparing for wildfires are being outpaced by climate irregularities. We must evolve our strategies– embrace year-round fuels work, tell our story to policy and decision-makers around the country, embrace technology that helps us plan and forecast better, and lean into collaborations and partnerships to address the challenges birthed from these unpredictable snow patterns.

The coming months will be telling, but one thing is certain time will tell. However, the work we do together now can either set us up for success or prepare us for a future of volatility.

In the meantime, if you’re getting the goods, get some!